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Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets are an exciting way to play on the outcome of real-life events by buying and trading contracts. Easy to learn but hard to master, Prediction Apps combine skill with luck, and a chance to win real money. Prediction Sites operate under federal regulation, meaning that there are legal options in all 50 states.
Prediction Markets With Sign-Up Bonuses
What are Prediction Markets?
Prediction sites work sort of like a stock market where contracts for bets are bought, sold and traded. Players deal in contracts, usually worth between $0.01 and $1 dollar, predicting a Yes or No outcome on an event. Players can buy multiple contracts on the same outcome, and will win or lose real money depending on the results. Available markets include anything from culture and politics to the economy and world events. Sports predictions are sometimes, but not always, available.
How Prediction Markets work:
- Find a prediction site that seems to your liking
- Consider the legality in your state, and their betting bonus
- Sign-up and verify your account
- Make a deposit if you're playing for real cash
- Browse market categories and options
- Buy Yes/No contracts on a question
- Wait for the outcome
A big advantage over traditional betting sites is that prediction markets let players trade contracts with each other after buying them. The value lost from a trade is usually much smaller than cashing out a bet, and can also result in a profit.
There are also free-to-play prediction sites using virtual currency instead of real money. These sites have an easier time operating in restricted states, but may still offer withdrawable prizes and rewards to well-performing players.
Costs and fees
Joining a prediction site is free, but just like with the stock market, trading usually comes at a fee. The actual cost varies between operators, and we strongly advise players to check the terms and conditions before signing up.
Common prediction market fees may include:
- Transaction fees when buying a contract, 1-3%.
- Trading fees when players exchange contracts, 1-3%.
- Winnings fee on profits, 0-10%.
- Withdrawal fees.
- Embedded contract fees, resulting in worse pricing.
While no operator charges all of these fees, some may charge more than one of them.
How can Prediction Markets be legal?
The way in which prediction market apps and websites can be legal even though they are quite similar to gambling is actually a somewhat complex story. What it boils down to is that instead of wagering their money on a bet, players buy and trade contracts that may or may not pay off depending on the outcome of a future event. Sort of like the stock market.
The buying and selling of contracts in the US falls under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) regulation. The registration through CFTC gives the prediction markets a way to operate legally nationwide. A few states have attempted to take action against individual prediction apps, but there are legal options available in every state.
Can you win real money on Prediction Markets?
Yes, players can both win and lose real money. The whole concept of prediction markets is to be able to wager cash even where it's normally not allowed. While contracts are usually capped at around $1 dollar, players can buy multiple contracts in order to increase the size of their bets. Available currencies can be anything from virtual coins to USD and crypto. Some sites are restricted or prohibited in certain states, but there are regulated and legal options available everywhere.
In what states are Prediction Markets legal?
Most popular and well-known prediction markets are regulated at a federal level by the CFTC, which means that they are legally available in all of the US, and can operate across state lines. But while they are technically legal everywhere, players from some states may find that they have very limited options.
A handful of states have taken matters into their own hands, attempting to contest certain operators, or prediction markets altogether. The reasons and ways in which they contest the operators vary, but most commonly operators not registered with the CFTC or that offer predictions on sports are targeted. In some extreme cases, cease-and-desist orders have even been issued.
States that have contested Prediction Markets:
- Illinois
- Nevada
- New Jersey
- Maryland
- Montana
- Ohio
